#Put all packages here
library(doParallel)
registerDoParallel(10, cores = detectCores() -2)
library(glmnet)
library(e1071)
library("randomForest")
library(ada)
library(adabag)
library(caret)
library(kernlab)
library(cluster)
library(ipred)
library(ggplot2)
library("factoextra")
library("FactoMineR")

1 Unsupervised clustering

Use hierarchical, k-means and spectral clustering to generate derived-computed phenotypes of countries. Do these derived lables relate (correspond to) the overall (OA) country ranking?

load("Fig5.23_24.RData")
# View(aggregate_arima_vector_country_ranking_df)
dim(aggregate_arima_vector_country_ranking_df)

## [1]  31 387

# 31(countries) 387(fetaures)
# Features = country-index + 386 features (378 time-series derivatives + 8 meta-data features)

# To choose features we like to have based on lasso
chooselambda <- function(cvlasso, option, k=NULL) {
  lambmat<-cbind(cvlasso$glmnet.fit$df,cvlasso$glmnet.fit$lambda)
  result<-tapply(lambmat[,2],lambmat[,1],max)
  kresult<-result[which(names(result)==as.factor(k))]
  if(option==1) {return(result)}
  else if (option==2) {return(kresult)}
  else (return("Not a valid option"))
}
showfeatures <- function(object, lambda, k ,...) {
  lam<-lambda[which(names(lambda)==as.factor(k))]
  beta <- predict(object, s = lam, type = "coef")
  if(is.list(beta)) {
    out <- do.call("cbind", lapply(beta, function(x) x[,1]))
    out <- as.data.frame(out)
    s <- rowSums(out)
    out <- out[which(s)!=0,,drop=FALSE]
  } else  {out<-data.frame(Overall = beta[,1])
  out<-out[which(out!=0),,drop=FALSE]
  }
  out <- abs(out[rownames(out) != "(Intercept)",,drop = FALSE])
  out
}
randchoose <- function(matr) {
  leng<-nrow(matr)
  se<-seq(1:leng)
  sam<-sample(se,as.integer(leng*0.6))
  return(sam)
}
MLcomp <- function(fitlas, cvlas, trn, test, option=1) {
  allfeat<-as.numeric(names(chooselambda(cvlasso = cvlas, option = 1)))
  allfeat<-allfeat[which(allfeat>4)]
  trainlist<-as.list(NULL)
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    trainlist[[i]]<-trn[,which(colnames(trn) %in% 
                                 c(row.names(showfeatures(fitlas, chooselambda(cvlas = cvlas,1), allfeat[i])), "Rank"))]
  }
resultframe<-data.frame(origin=rep(NA,length(allfeat)))
rownames(resultframe)<-allfeat
resultframe$Decision_tree_bagging<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    set.seed(1234)
    eubag<-ipred::bagging(Rank~.,data = trainlist[[i]],nbagg=100)
    bagtest<-predict(eubag, eutest)
    bagagg<-bagtest==eutest$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(bagagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultframe$Decision_tree_bagging[i]<-accuracy
  }
resultframe$Random_forest<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    set.seed(1234)
    eurf<-randomForest(Rank~.,data=trainlist[[i]])
    rftest<-predict(eurf,eutest)
    rfagg<-rftest==eutest$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(rfagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultframe$Random_forest[i]<-accuracy
  }
resultframe$Decision_tree_adaboost<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    set.seed(1234)
    enada<-ada(Rank~.,data = trainlist[[i]],iter=50)
    adatest<-predict(enada,eutest)
    adaagg<-adatest==eutest$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(adaagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultframe$Decision_tree_adaboost[i]<-accuracy
  }
resultframe$GLM<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    euglm<-glm(Rank~.,data = trainlist[[i]],family = "binomial")
    glmtest<-predict(euglm,eutest)
    glmtest<-ifelse(glmtest<0,0,1)
    glmagg<-glmtest==eutest$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(glmagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultframe$GLM[i]<-accuracy
  }
resultframe$SVM_best_Gamma_Cost<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))  
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    set.seed(1234)
    svmtune<-tune.svm(Rank~.,data = trainlist[[i]],gamma = 10^(-6:1),cost = 10^(-10:10))
    svmed<-svm(Rank~.,data=trainlist[[i]],gamma=svmtune$best.parameters[1],cost=svmtune$best.parameters[2])
    svmtest<-predict(svmed,eutest)
    svmagg<-svmtest==eutest$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(svmagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultframe$SVM_best_Gamma_Cost[i]<-accuracy
  }
  resultframe$origin<-NULL
  if(option==1){return(resultframe)}
}

# resultXframe <- MLcomp(fitLASSO, cvLASSO, Xtrain, Xtest, 1)
MLcompX <- function(fitlas, cvlas, trn, test, option=1) {
  allfeat<-as.numeric(names(chooselambda(cvlasso = cvlas, option = 1)))
  allfeat<-allfeat[which(allfeat>4)]
  trainlist<-as.list(NULL)
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    trainlist[[i]]<-trn[,which(colnames(trn) %in% 
                                 c(row.names(showfeatures(fitlas, chooselambda(cvlas = cvlas,1), allfeat[i])), "Rank"))]
  }
 
  resultXframe<-data.frame(origin=rep(NA,length(allfeat)))
  rownames(resultXframe)<-allfeat
  resultXframe$Decision_tree_bagging<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    #ERROR HANDLING
    possibleError <- tryCatch(
        function () {
          set.seed(1234)
          Xbag<-ipred::bagging(Rank~ . ,data = trainlist[[i]], nbagg=100, 
                               control=rpart.control(minsplit=2, cp=0.1, xval=10))
          bagtest<-predict(Xbag, Xtest)
          bagagg<-bagtest==Xtest$Rank
          accuracy<-prop.table(table(bagagg))[c("TRUE")]
          resultXframe$Decision_tree_bagging[i]<-accuracy
        },
        error=function(e) e
    )
    if(inherits(possibleError, "error")) next
    # print(i)
  }

  resultXframe$Random_forest<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    set.seed(1234)
    Xrf<-randomForest(Rank~.,data=trainlist[[i]])
    rftest<-predict(Xrf,test)
    rfagg<-rftest==test$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(rfagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultXframe$Random_forest[i]<-accuracy
  }

  resultXframe$Decision_tree_adaboost<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    set.seed(1234)
    Xada<-ada(Rank~.,data = trainlist[[i]],iter=50)
    adatest<-predict(Xada,test)
    adaagg<-adatest==test$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(adaagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultXframe$Decision_tree_adaboost[i]<-accuracy
  }

  resultXframe$GLM<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    euglm<-glm(Rank~.,data = trainlist[[i]],family = "binomial")
    glmtest<-predict(euglm,test)
    glmtest<-ifelse(glmtest<0,0,1)
    glmagg<-glmtest==test$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(glmagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultXframe$GLM[i]<-accuracy
  }

  resultXframe$SVM_best_Gamma_Cost<-rep(NA,length(allfeat))  
  for (i in 1:length(allfeat)) {
    set.seed(1234)
    svmtune<-tune.svm(Rank~.,data = trainlist[[i]],gamma = 10^(-6:1),cost = 10^(-10:10))
    svmed<-svm(Rank~.,data=trainlist[[i]],gamma=svmtune$best.parameters[1],cost=svmtune$best.parameters[2])
    svmtest<-predict(svmed,test)
    svmagg<-svmtest==test$Rank
    accuracy<-prop.table(table(svmagg))[c("TRUE")]
    resultXframe$SVM_best_Gamma_Cost[i]<-accuracy
  }
  resultXframe$origin<-NULL
  if(option==1){return(resultXframe)}
}

1.1 Spacetime analytics

1.1 Lasso features selection

eudata <- aggregate_arima_vector_country_ranking_df
colnames(eudata) <- c("country",colnames(eudata[,-1]))
eudata <- eudata[ , -ncol(eudata)]
Y<-aggregate_arima_vector_country_ranking_df$OA

# Compelte data 386 features (378 + 8)
X<-eudata[,-ncol(eudata)]; dim(X)

## [1]  31 385

# TS-derivative features only (378)
X378 <- X[, -c(379:386)]; dim(X378)

## [1]  31 378

countryinfo<-as.character(X[,1])
countryinfo[11]<-"Germany"
X<-X[,-1]
keeplist<-NULL
for (i in 1:ncol(X)) {
  if(FALSE %in% (X[,i]==mean(X[,i]))) {keeplist<-c(keeplist,i)}
}
X<-X[,keeplist]; dim(X)

## [1]  31 290

# Reduced to 378 features 
#countryinfo<-as.character(X378[,1])
#countryinfo[11]<-"Germany"
#X378<-X378[,-1]
#keeplist<-NULL
#for (i in 1:ncol(X378)) {
#    if(FALSE %in% (X378[,i]==mean(X378[,i]))) {keeplist<-c(keeplist,i)}
#}
#X378<-X378[,keeplist]; dim(X378)

fitLASSO <- glmnet(as.matrix(X), Y, alpha = 1)
#cross-validation
cvLASSO = cv.glmnet(data.matrix(X), Y, alpha = 1, parallel=TRUE)

# fitLASSO <- glmnet(as.matrix(X378), Y, alpha = 1)
#library(doParallel)
#registerDoParallel(5)
#cross-validation
#cvLASSO = cv.glmnet(data.matrix(X378), Y, alpha = 1, parallel=TRUE)

** 1.2 Comparison of different ML algorithms of different feature numbers**

Feature 5.23 A

eusample<-X
eusample$Rank<-as.factor(ifelse(Y<30, 1, 0))
set.seed(1234)
eutrain<-eusample[randchoose(eusample), ]
set.seed(1234)
eutest<-eusample[-randchoose(eusample), ]

eusample378 <- X378
eusample378$Rank <- as.factor(ifelse(Y<30, 1, 0))
set.seed(1234)
eutrain378 <- eusample378[randchoose(eusample378), ]
set.seed(1234)
eutest378 <- eusample378[-randchoose(eusample378), ]

resultframe <- MLcomp(fitLASSO, cvLASSO, eutrain, eutest, 1)
resultframe_386_ST <- resultframe
# View(resultframe_386_ST)

# resultframe_378_ST <- MLcomp(fitLASSO, cvLASSO, eutrain378, eutest378, 1)

# Display results
resultframe$features<-as.factor(as.numeric(rownames(resultframe)))
ppframe<-data.frame(NULL)
for (i in 1:5) {
  FM <- data.frame(resultframe[,i], resultframe$features,
                   Methods<-rep(colnames(resultframe)[i], nrow(resultframe)))
  ppframe<-rbind(ppframe, FM)
}
colnames(ppframe)<-c("Accuracy", "Features", "Methods")
ggplot(ppframe, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                    group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
  geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
  ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
  geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
  theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
  ggtitle("Spacetime (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
  theme(
    axis.text=element_text(size=16),
    plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
    axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))

png("Figures/Fig5.23A.png",width = 1920,height = 1080,res = 100)
ggplot(ppframe, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                    group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
  geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
  ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
  geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
  theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
  ggtitle("Spacetime (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
  theme(
    axis.text=element_text(size=16),
    plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
    axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))
dev.off()

## quartz_off_screen 
##                 2

Feature 5.23 B

# spacetime (ST) 378_ST
resultframe_378_ST$features<-as.factor(as.numeric(rownames(resultframe_378_ST)))
ppframe_378_ST<-data.frame(NULL)
for (i in 1:5) {
  FM_378_ST <- data.frame(resultframe_378_ST[,i], resultframe_378_ST$features,
          Methods<-rep(colnames(resultframe_378_ST)[i], nrow(resultframe_378_ST)))
  ppframe_378_ST<-rbind(ppframe_378_ST, FM_378_ST)
}
colnames(ppframe_378_ST)<-c("Accuracy", "Features", "Methods")
ggplot(ppframe_378_ST, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                    group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
  geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
  ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
  geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
  theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
  ggtitle("Spacetime (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
  theme(
    axis.text=element_text(size=16),
    plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
    axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))

png("Figures/Fig5.23B.png",width = 1920,height = 1080,res = 100)
ggplot(ppframe_378_ST, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                    group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
  geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
  ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
  geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
  theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
  ggtitle("Spacetime (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
  theme(
    axis.text=element_text(size=16),
    plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
    axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))
dev.off()

## quartz_off_screen 
##                 2

1.3 Clustering

Feature 5.23 C

showfeatures(fitLASSO, chooselambda(cvLASSO,1), 10)

##                            Overall
## Feature_1_ArimaVec_8  5.256360e-01
## Feature_16_ArimaVec_4 6.716879e-01
## Feature_19_ArimaVec_8 3.949426e-01
## Feature_22_ArimaVec_4 1.796214e+00
## Feature_25_ArimaVec_1 9.911928e-04
## Feature_25_ArimaVec_4 4.972196e-01
## Feature_25_ArimaVec_5 3.717699e-01
## Feature_27_ArimaVec_3 1.693775e-02
## Feature_35_ArimaVec_4 9.390697e-01
## IncomeGroup           1.252439e+01

feat_5 <-  predict(fitLASSO, s = chooselambda(cvLASSO,2,10), newx = data.matrix(X))
df1 <- as.data.frame(rbind(as.numeric(feat_5),Y), 
                     row.names = c("Predicted Rank","OA Rank"))
colnames(df1) <- countryNames
df1 # View(t(df1))

##                 Austria  Belgium Bulgaria  Croatia   Cyprus Czech Republic
## Predicted Rank 21.48021 22.01051 32.74413 21.15846 34.84274       21.90391
## OA Rank        18.00000 19.00000 38.00000 28.00000 50.00000       25.00000
##                 Denmark  Estonia  Finland   France  Germany   Greece
## Predicted Rank 17.78768 21.21233 15.60224 16.10767 14.64532 21.15785
## OA Rank        10.00000 32.00000  1.00000 16.00000 12.00000 26.00000
##                 Hungary  Iceland  Ireland   Italy   Latvia Lithuania
## Predicted Rank 24.47112 35.20295 21.07326 20.1141 33.74456  35.48394
## OA Rank        33.00000 36.00000 17.00000 23.0000 36.00000  34.00000
##                Luxembourg    Malta Netherlands   Norway   Poland Portugal
## Predicted Rank   19.53351 35.39727    16.31461 11.33358 33.08849 22.12424
## OA Rank           5.00000 50.00000     8.00000  6.00000 29.00000 26.00000
##                 Romania Slovakia Slovenia    Spain   Sweden Switzerland
## Predicted Rank 35.33505 20.73411 22.59695 19.70497 18.95008    14.89101
## OA Rank        39.00000 31.00000 24.00000 26.00000  3.00000     2.00000
##                United Kingdom
## Predicted Rank       16.25316
## OA Rank              14.00000

# Clustering
cluster5 <- X[, which(colnames(X) %in%
                        row.names(showfeatures(fitLASSO, chooselambda(cvLASSO,1), 10)))]
rownames(cluster5) <- countryNames # countryinfo

#1. hierarchical clustering
scaled_cluster5 <- scale(cluster5)
##deal with NAN values
#scaled_country<-scaled_country[,which(is.nan(scaled_country[1,])==FALSE)]
dis_SC5 <- dist(scaled_cluster5)
H_clust_SC5 <- hclust(dis_SC5)

H_clust_SC5 <- eclust(scaled_cluster5, k=5, "hclust")
fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5, rect = TRUE, cex=0.5)

png("Figures/Fig5.23C.png",width = 1920,height = 1080,res = 100)
fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5, rect = TRUE, cex=0.5)
dev.off()

## quartz_off_screen 
##                 2

# fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5, lwd=2, rect = TRUE)

Feature 5.23 D

# ST 378
cluster5_378_ST <- X378[, which(colnames(X378) %in%
                        row.names(showfeatures(fitLASSO, chooselambda(cvLASSO,1), 10)))]
rownames(cluster5_378_ST) <- countryNames # countryinfo
#1. hierarchical clustering
scaled_cluster5_378_ST <- scale(cluster5_378_ST)
dis_SC5_378_ST <- dist(scaled_cluster5_378_ST)
H_clust_SC5_378_ST <- hclust(dis_SC5_378_ST)
H_clust_SC5_378_ST <- eclust(scaled_cluster5_378_ST, k=5, "hclust")
fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5_378_ST,rect = TRUE, cex=0.5)

png("Figures/Fig5.23D.png",width = 1920,height = 1080,res = 100)
fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5_378_ST,rect = TRUE, cex=0.5)
dev.off()

## quartz_off_screen 
##                 2

1.1.0.1 Spacekime - Nil-Phase

** 2.1 Lasso features selection**
** 2.2 Comparison of different ML algorithms of different feature numbers**
** 2.3 Clustering**

1.1.0.2 Spacekime - Swapped-Phase

** 3.1 Lasso features selection**

dim(IFT_SwappedPhase_FT_aggregate_arima_vector)

## [1]  31 387

# [1]  31 387
eudata_SwappedPhase <- IFT_SwappedPhase_FT_aggregate_arima_vector
colnames(eudata_SwappedPhase) <- c("country", colnames(eudata_SwappedPhase[,-1]))
eudata_SwappedPhase <- as.data.frame(eudata_SwappedPhase[ , -ncol(eudata_SwappedPhase)])
Y <- as.data.frame(IFT_SwappedPhase_FT_aggregate_arima_vector)$OA

# Compelte data 386 features (378 + 8)
X <- eudata_SwappedPhase
countryinfo<-as.character(X[,1])
countryinfo[11]<-"Germany"
X<-X[,-1]
keeplist<-NULL
for (i in 1:ncol(X)) {
  if(FALSE %in% (X[,i]==mean(X[,i]))) {keeplist<-c(keeplist,i)}
}
X<-X[,keeplist]; dim(X)   # 31 343

## [1]  31 343

# Reduced to 378 features 
# TS-derivative features only (378)
# X378 <- X[, -c(379:386)]; dim(X378)
#countryinfo<-as.character(X378[,1])
#countryinfo[11]<-"Germany"
#X378<-X378[,-1]
#keeplist<-NULL
#for (i in 1:ncol(X378)) {
#    if(FALSE %in% (X378[,i]==mean(X378[,i]))) {keeplist<-c(keeplist,i)}
#}
#X378<-X378[,keeplist]; dim(X378)

fitLASSO_X <- glmnet(as.matrix(X), Y, alpha = 1)
#cross-validation
cvLASSO_X = cv.glmnet(data.matrix(X), Y, alpha = 1, parallel=TRUE)

# fitLASSO_X <- glmnet(as.matrix(X378), Y, alpha = 1)
#library(doParallel)
#registerDoParallel(5)
#cross-validation
#cvLASSO_X = cv.glmnet(data.matrix(X378), Y, alpha = 1, parallel=TRUE)

** 3.2 Comparison of different ML algorithms of different feature numbers**

Feature 5.24 A

#test training data setup

Xsample <- X
Xsample$Rank <- as.factor(ifelse(Y<30, 1, 0))
set.seed(1234)
Xtrain <- Xsample[randchoose(Xsample), ]
set.seed(1234)
Xtest <- Xsample[-randchoose(Xsample), ]

#Xsample378 <- X378
#Xsample378$Rank <- as.factor(ifelse(Y<30, 1, 0))
#set.seed(1234)
#Xtrain378 <- Xsample378[randchoose(Xsample378), ]
#set.seed(1234)
#Xtest378 <- Xsample378[-randchoose(Xsample378), ]


resultXframe <- MLcompX(fitLASSO_X, cvLASSO_X, Xtrain, Xtest, 1)
resultXframe_386_SK_Swapped <- resultXframe
# View(resultXframe_386_SK_Swapped)

# resultXframe_378_SK_Swapped <- MLcompX(fitLASSO_X, cvLASSO_X, Xtrain378, Xtest378, 1)

# Display results
resultXframe$features<-as.factor(as.numeric(rownames(resultXframe)))
ppframeX<-data.frame(NULL)
for (i in 1:5) {
  FM <- data.frame(resultXframe[,i], resultXframe$features,
                   Methods<-rep(colnames(resultXframe)[i], nrow(resultXframe)))
  ppframeX<-rbind(ppframeX, FM)
}
colnames(ppframeX)<-c("Accuracy", "Features", "Methods")
ggplot(ppframeX, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                    group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
  geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
  ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
  geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
  theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
  ggtitle("Spacekime Swapped-Phases (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
  theme(
    axis.text=element_text(size=16),
    plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
    axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))

png("Figures/Fig5.24A.png",width = 1920,height = 1080,res = 100)
ggplot(ppframeX, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                    group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
  geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
  ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
  geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
  theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
  ggtitle("Spacekime Swapped-Phases (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
  theme(
    axis.text=element_text(size=16),
    plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
    axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))
dev.off()

## quartz_off_screen 
##                 2

# spacetime (ST) 378_ST
resultframe_378_ST$features<-as.factor(as.numeric(rownames(resultframe_378_ST)))
ppframe_378_ST<-data.frame(NULL)
for (i in 1:5) {
  FM_378_ST <- data.frame(resultframe_378_ST[,i], resultframe_378_ST$features,
          Methods<-rep(colnames(resultframe_378_ST)[i], nrow(resultframe_378_ST)))
  ppframe_378_ST<-rbind(ppframe_378_ST, FM_378_ST)
}
colnames(ppframe_378_ST)<-c("Accuracy", "Features", "Methods")
ggplot(ppframe_378_ST, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                    group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
  geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
  ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
  geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
  theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
  ggtitle("Spacetime (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
  theme(
    axis.text=element_text(size=16),
    plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
    axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))

Feature 5.24 B

##################### for resultXframe_378_SK_Swapped
resultXframe_378_SK_Swapped$features<-as.factor(as.numeric(rownames(resultXframe_378_SK_Swapped)))
ppframeX<-data.frame(NULL)
for (i in 1:5) {
    FM <- data.frame(resultXframe_378_SK_Swapped[, i], resultXframe_378_SK_Swapped$features,
                     Methods<-rep(colnames(resultXframe_378_SK_Swapped)[i], nrow(resultXframe_378_SK_Swapped)))
    ppframeX<-rbind(ppframeX, FM)
}
colnames(ppframeX)<-c("Accuracy", "Features", "Methods")
ggplot(ppframeX, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                     group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
    geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
    ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
    geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
    theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
    ggtitle("Spacekime Swapped-Phases (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
    theme(
        axis.text=element_text(size=16),
        plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
        axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
        axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))

png("Figures/Fig5.24B.png",width = 1920,height = 1080,res = 100)
ggplot(ppframeX, aes(x=Features, y=Accuracy, colour=Methods, 
                     group=Methods, shape=Methods))+
    geom_line(position=position_dodge(0.2), lwd=2)+
    ylim(0.2, 1.0) +
    geom_point(size=5, position=position_dodge(0.2))+
    theme(legend.position="top", legend.text=element_text(size=16))+
    ggtitle("Spacekime Swapped-Phases (386 features): Compare ML Forecasting Results")+
    theme(
        axis.text=element_text(size=16),
        plot.title = element_text(size=18, face="bold.italic"),
        axis.title.x = element_text(size=14, face="bold"),
        axis.title.y = element_text(size=14, face="bold"))
dev.off()

## quartz_off_screen 
##                 2

** 3.3 Clustering**

Feature 5.24 C

showfeatures(fitLASSO_X, chooselambda(cvLASSO_X, 1), 10)

##                            Overall
## Feature_2_ArimaVec_8  1.232679e+15
## Feature_23_ArimaVec_7 4.201288e+13
## Feature_29_ArimaVec_2 1.117510e-05
## Feature_34_ArimaVec_4 1.197363e+00
## Feature_36_ArimaVec_3 9.500284e-02
## Feature_37_ArimaVec_5 2.179608e+00
## Feature_38_ArimaVec_2 9.531233e-03
## Feature_41_ArimaVec_5 8.925103e-02
## Feature_42_ArimaVec_7 1.992485e+14
## HI                    6.623288e-01

feat_5 <-  predict(fitLASSO_X, s = chooselambda(cvLASSO_X, 2, 10), newx = data.matrix(X))
df1 <- as.data.frame(rbind(as.numeric(feat_5), Y), 
                     row.names = c("Predicted Rank","OA Rank"))
colnames(df1) <- countryNames
df1 # View(t(df1))

##                Austria Belgium Bulgaria  Croatia   Cyprus Czech Republic
## Predicted Rank 16.8738 23.3342 30.74162 27.44991 35.05499       24.99034
## OA Rank        18.0000 19.0000 38.00000 28.00000 50.00000       25.00000
##                 Denmark  Estonia  Finland  France  Germany  Greece
## Predicted Rank 17.10833 28.00065 16.82787 14.9732 15.42112 25.1666
## OA Rank        10.00000 32.00000  1.00000 16.0000 12.00000 26.0000
##                 Hungary  Iceland  Ireland    Italy  Latvia Lithuania
## Predicted Rank 29.03048 29.60176 23.17419 27.23579 29.7126   32.9529
## OA Rank        33.00000 36.00000 17.00000 23.00000 36.0000   34.0000
##                Luxembourg    Malta Netherlands   Norway   Poland Portugal
## Predicted Rank   13.19769 39.70136    13.37373 16.06833 26.81967 21.50892
## OA Rank           5.00000 50.00000     8.00000  6.00000 29.00000 26.00000
##                 Romania Slovakia Slovenia    Spain   Sweden Switzerland
## Predicted Rank 29.61407 22.33643 22.26078 20.61835 17.08804    12.77284
## OA Rank        39.00000 31.00000 24.00000 26.00000  3.00000     2.00000
##                United Kingdom
## Predicted Rank       15.57164
## OA Rank              14.00000

# Clustering
cluster5 <- X[, which(colnames(X) %in%
                        row.names(showfeatures(fitLASSO_X, chooselambda(cvLASSO_X, 1), 10)))]
rownames(cluster5) <- countryNames # countryinfo

#1. hierarchical clustering
scaled_cluster5 <- scale(cluster5)
##deal with NAN values
#scaled_country<-scaled_country[,which(is.nan(scaled_country[1,])==FALSE)]
dis_SC5 <- dist(scaled_cluster5)
H_clust_SC5 <- hclust(dis_SC5)

H_clust_SC5 <- eclust(scaled_cluster5, k=5, "hclust")

png("Figures/Fig5.24C.png",width = 1920,height = 1080,res = 100)
fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5, rect = TRUE, cex=0.5)
dev.off()

## quartz_off_screen 
##                 2

fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5, rect = TRUE, cex=0.5)

# fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5, lwd=2, rect = TRUE)

Feature 5.24 D

# ST 378
cluster5_378_SK <- X378[, which(colnames(X378) %in%
                        row.names(showfeatures(fitLASSO_X, chooselambda(cvLASSO_X, 1), 10)))]
rownames(cluster5_378_SK) <- countryNames # countryinfo
#1. hierarchical clustering
scaled_cluster5_378_SK <- scale(cluster5_378_SK)
dis_SC5_378_SK <- dist(scaled_cluster5_378_SK)
H_clust_SC5_378_SK <- hclust(dis_SC5_378_SK)
H_clust_SC5_378_SK <- eclust(scaled_cluster5_378_SK, k=5, "hclust")
fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5_378_SK,rect = TRUE, cex=0.5)

png("Figures/Fig5.24D.png",width = 1920,height = 1080,res = 100)
fviz_dend(H_clust_SC5_378_SK,rect = TRUE, cex=0.5)
dev.off()

## quartz_off_screen 
##                 2

SOCR Resource Visitor number

Figure 5.23-24

Back To Contents

SOCR Team

June 2019

1 Unsupervised clustering

1.1 Spacetime analytics

1.1.0.1 Spacekime - Nil-Phase

1.1.0.2 Spacekime - Swapped-Phase